Why Your Runway Calculation Is Wrong (And What to Do About It)
That spreadsheet telling you "16.2 months of runway" is lying to you. Here's why single-point estimates fail founders and how probabilistic thinking can save your startup.
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Insights on startup finance, runway planning, and making better decisions under uncertainty.
The Revenue Hockey Stick Delusion
Why your growth projections are probably too optimistic, and how to build models that reflect reality.
Read moreScenario Planning: Bear, Base, and Bull Cases
Smart founders don't plan for one future—they plan for many. Here's how to build scenarios that prepare you for anything.
Read moreWhen to Start Fundraising: A Probabilistic Approach
Most founders start fundraising too late. Learn how to use runway distributions to time your raise perfectly.
Read moreThe True Cost of That Enterprise Deal
That $200K annual contract looks amazing—until you account for what it actually costs to close and service it.
Read moreThe Hidden Cost of Hiring Delays on Your Runway
Hiring almost always takes longer than planned. Here's how to model the uncertainty and what it means for your cash.
Read moreBridge Rounds: When They Make Sense and When They Don't
Bridge financing can extend your runway to a better outcome—or dig you deeper into a hole. Here's how to know the difference.
Read moreBurn Rate vs Burn Multiple: Which Metric Matters?
Every investor asks about burn rate. But smart investors care more about burn multiple. Here's why—and how to use it.
Read moreThe 18-Month Myth: How Much Runway Do You Really Need?
"Raise 18-24 months of runway" is standard advice. But one-size-fits-all guidance rarely fits anyone perfectly.
Read moreCutting Burn: A Framework for Prioritizing Cuts
When runway gets tight, cutting burn is often the right move. But cutting the wrong things can do more harm than good.
Read moreDefault Alive vs Default Dead: Where Do You Stand?
Paul Graham's famous framework, extended with probabilistic thinking. It's not binary—it's a probability.
Read moreThe Hidden Costs Founders Forget to Model
Your runway model includes salaries and AWS. But what about legal fees, insurance, and the random $15K expenses that appear quarterly?
Read moreFundraising in a Down Market: Adjusting Your Runway Strategy
The playbook that worked in 2021 doesn't work in tough markets. Here's how to adjust your runway strategy when capital is scarce.
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